Measuring progress towards global poverty goals: Challenges and lessons from southern Africa

This paper draws on the work in Lesotho and Namibia of tracking progress towards cutting poverty in half by 2015, which is the key poverty target of the Millennium Development Goals. The paper serves at least two purposes. Firstly, it outlines the steps and methodological considerations involved in selecting appropriate national indicators and targets for measuring income poverty using household surveys and poverty lines based on observed consumption patterns. Secondly, it highlights some practical lessons and challenges for policy makers in southern Africa when they attempt to access and analyse poverty data under less than ideal circumstances.Income poverty; poverty line; household budget survey; Millennium Development Goals; Lesotho; Namibia

A Robust Multi-Dimensional Poverty Profile for Uganda

In this paper we compute a multi-dimensional poverty index (MPI) for Uganda following the approach proposed by Alkire and Forster (2007). Using household survey data we show how the incidence of multi-dimensional poverty has fallen in recent years and we use the decomposability features of the index to explain the drivers of reduction in multi-dimensional poverty. We also compare the results from Uganda with other countries for which the MPI has been computed and we note some caveats in such a comparison. The robustness of our estimates is tested in a stochastic dominance framework and using statistical inference. Notably, we extend the one-dimensional analysis of stochastic dominance to take into account household size in a second dimension, which is particularly important as some of the MPI indicators are sensitive to the number of household members. By exploiting a unique subsample of the integrated household survey programme in Uganda, which has not previously been analysed, we are also able to match the data-set used for the MPI with data used to compute the conventional estimates of monetary poverty. This enables a more robust assessment of the complementarities of the two types of poverty measures than has been previously possible.multidimensional poverty, counting approach, Uganda, household size, robustness analysis, international comparisons.

Measuring the impact of social cash transfers on poverty and inequality in Namibia

This paper reviews the system for social cash transfers in Namibia, a middle-income country with a long experience in making available a universal and non-contributory old age pension, child grants using means-testing and quasi-conditionalities and other cash transfers. The paper traces the origins of the cash transfers back to the country’s past annexation into apartheid South Africa and shows how Namibia’s system is now faced with a set of distinct challenges that are particularly pertinent as the authorities are rapidly scaling-up access. Notably, in the years after the remaining elements of racial discrimination were eliminated, and the value of the transfers were equalised across the ethnic groups, new discrepancies have developed in the values of the different grants. Moreover, using newly available household data the paper finds inefficiencies in the means-testing for the child grants – especially when compared to South Africa. In spite of these challenges the paper also shows that social cash transfers have a large effect on poverty reduction and that the effects are particularly positive for the poorest of the poor. The transfers also tend to reduce inequality but this impact is more limited. Simulations indicate the fiscal sustainability of an expanded system of social cash transfers and highlight the potential cost-savings that would accrue from a more effective means-test of the child grants. In the analysis the effects of using income and expenditure data as the basis for the welfare variable are discerned.Namibia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Social protection, Social transfers, Old age pension, Disability grants, Child grants

Sectoral and welfare effects of the global economic crisis on Uganda: a recursive dynamic CGE analysis

This paper analyses the impact of the global economic and financial crisis on Uganda notably on macro-economic aggregates, sectoral output and household welfare, and the potential role of fiscal policy and reform in mitigating the impacts. We find that second round effects from a reduction in financial inflows such as remittances, foreign direct investments and overseas development assistance, as well as reduction in international demand from cash crops such as cotton, tea and coffee, could lead to a reduction in economic growth by 0.6 percentage points on average annually over the period 2008- 2010 compared to a baseline reflecting pre-crisis conditions. A surge in regional exports and early counter-cyclical policies in particular are found to dampen the most adverse impacts of the crisis. The paper also shows that the impact of the government’s expansionary 2009/2010 budget could return growth to pre-crisis levels and illustrates how a re-prioritization of government expenditure away from expenditure on administration to more productive sectors of the economy, combined with reforms to improve the efficiency of public spending, could lift long-term growth and reduce poverty, especially in rural areas, even more.Sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda, global economic and financial crisis, computable general equilibrium (CGE), Consumer/Household Economics, Financial Economics, Industrial Organization, International Development, Production Economics, Public Economics, C68, D58, E62, F15, H62, I32,

Measuring progress towards global poverty goals: Challenges and lessons from southern Africa

This paper draws on the work in Lesotho and Namibia of tracking progress towards cutting poverty in half by 2015, which is the key poverty target of the Millennium Development Goals. The paper serves at least two purposes. Firstly, it outlines the steps and methodological considerations involved in selecting appropriate national indicators and targets for measuring income poverty using household surveys and poverty lines based on observed consumption patterns. Secondly, it highlights some practical lessons and challenges for policy makers in southern Africa when they attempt to access and analyse poverty data under less than ideal circumstances

Does deterministic coexistence theory matter in a finite world?

Contemporary studies of species coexistence are underpinned by deterministic models that assume that competing species have continuous (i.e., noninteger) densities, live in infinitely large landscapes, and coexist over infinite time horizons. By contrast, in nature, species are composed of discrete individuals subject to demographic stochasticity and occur in habitats of finite size where extinctions occur in finite time. One consequence of these discrepancies is that metrics of species' coexistence derived from deterministic theory may be unreliable predictors of the duration of species coexistence in nature. These coexistence metrics include invasion growth rates and niche and fitness differences, which are now commonly applied in theoretical and empirical studies of species coexistence. In this study, we tested the efficacy of deterministic coexistence metrics on the duration of species coexistence in a finite world. We introduce new theoretical and computational methods to estimate coexistence times in stochastic counterparts of classic deterministic models of competition. Importantly, we parameterized this model using experimental field data for 90 pairwise combinations of 18 species of annual plants, allowing us to derive biologically informed estimates of coexistence times for a natural system. Strikingly, we found that for species expected to deterministically coexist, community sizes containing only 10 individuals had predicted coexistence times of more than 1000 years. We also found that invasion growth rates explained 60% of the variation in intrinsic coexistence times, reinforcing their general usefulness in studies of coexistence. However, only by integrating information on both invasion growth rates and species' equilibrium population sizes could most (>99%) of the variation in species coexistence times be explained. This integration was achieved with demographically uncoupled single-species models solely determined by the invasion growth rates and equilibrium population sizes. Moreover, because of a complex relationship between niche overlap/fitness differences and equilibrium population sizes, increasing niche overlap and increasing fitness differences did not always result in decreasing coexistence times, as deterministic theory would predict. Nevertheless, our results tend to support the informed use of deterministic theory for understanding the duration of species' coexistence while highlighting the need to incorporate information on species' equilibrium population sizes in addition to invasion growth rates

Vitamin C: Intravenous Use by Complementary and Alternative Medicine Practitioners and Adverse Effects

Background: Anecdotal information and case reports suggest that intravenously administered vitamin C is used by Complementary and Alternate Medicine (CAM) practitioners. The scale of such use in the U.S. and associated side effects are unknown. Methods and Findings: We surveyed attendees at annual CAM Conferences in 2006 and 2008, and determined sales of intravenous vitamin C by major U.S. manufacturers/distributors. We also queried practitioners for side effects, compiled published cases, and analyzed FDA’s Adverse Events Database. Of 199 survey respondents (out of 550), 172 practitioners administered IV vitamin C to 11,233 patients in 2006 and 8876 patients in 2008. Average dose was 28 grams every 4 days, with 22 total treatments per patient. Estimated yearly doses used (as 25g/50ml vials) were 318,539 in 2006 and 354,647 in 2008. Manufacturers ’ yearly sales were 750,000 and 855,000 vials, respectively. Common reasons for treatment included infection, cancer, and fatigue. Of 9,328 patients for whom data is available, 101 had side effects, mostly minor, including lethargy/fatigue in 59 patients, change in mental status in 21 patients and vein irritation/phlebitis in 6 patients. Publications documented serious adverse events, including 2 deaths in patients known to be at risk for IV vitamin C. Due to confounding causes, the FDA Adverse Events Database was uninformative. Total numbers of patients treated in the US with high dose vitamin C cannot be accurately estimated from this study

An Evaluation of 10 Percent and 20 Percent Benzocaine Gels in Patients With Acute Toothaches: Efficacy, Tolerability and Compliance With Label Dose Administration Directions

Background The authors evaluated the efficacy and tolerability of 10 percent and 20 percent benzocaine gels compared with those of a vehicle (placebo) gel for the temporary relief of toothache pain. They also assessed the compliance with the label dose administration directions on the part of participants with toothache pain. Methods Under double-masked conditions, 576 participants self-applied study gel to an open tooth cavity and surrounding oral tissues. Participants evaluated their pain intensity and pain relief for 120 minutes. The authors determined the amount of gel the participants applied. Results The responders’ rates (the primary efficacy parameter), defined as the percentage of participants who had an improvement in pain intensity as exhibited by a pain score reduction of at least one unit on the dental pain scale from baseline for two consecutive assessments any time between the five- and 20-minute points, were 87.3 percent, 80.7 percent and 70.4 percent, respectively, for 20 percent benzocaine gel, 10 percent benzocaine gel and vehicle gel. Both benzocaine gels were significantly (P ≤ .05) better than vehicle gel; the 20 percent benzocaine gel also was significantly (P ≤ .05) better than the 10 percent benzocaine gel. The mean amount of gel applied was 235.6 milligrams, with 88.2 percent of participants applying 400 mg or less. Conclusions Both 10 percent and 20 percent benzocaine gels were more efficacious than the vehicle gel, and the 20 percent benzocaine gel was more efficacious than the 10 percent benzocaine gel. All treatments were well tolerated by participants. Practical Implications Patients can use 10 percent and 20 percent benzocaine gels to temporarily treat toothache pain safely

MULTIWAVELENGTH OBSERVATIONS OF THE SS 433 JETS

We present observations of the SS 433 jets using the Chandra High Energy Transmission Grating Spectrometer with contemporaneous optical and Very Long Baseline Array observations. The X-ray and optical emission line regions are found to be related but not coincident as the optical line emission persists for days while the X-ray emission lines fade in less than 5000 s. The line Doppler shifts from the optical and X-ray lines match well, indicating that they are less than 3 × 10[superscript 14] cm apart. The jet Doppler shifts show aperiodic variations that could result from shocks in interactions with the local environment. These perturbations are consistent with a change in jet direction but not jet speed. The proper motions of the radio knots match the kinematic model only if the distance to SS 433 is 4.5 ± 0.2 kpc. Observations during eclipse show that the occulted emission is very hard, seen only above 2 keV and rising to comprise >50% of the flux at 8 keV. The soft X-ray emission lines from the jet are not blocked, constraining the jet length to [> over ~]2 × 10[superscript 12] cm. The base jet density is in the range 10[superscript 10-13] cm[superscript –3], in contrast to our previous estimate based on the Si XIII triplet, which is likely to have been affected by UV de-excitation. There is a clear overabundance of Ni by a factor of about 15 relative to the solar value, which may have resulted from an unusual supernova that formed the compact object